AlphaDow

Archive for March, 2009|Monthly archive page

90% UP DAY LACKS FOLLOW THROUGH, BEAR STILL REIGNS, GOLD STALLS AS OIL FALLS

In black swan, DIA, dow theory, Gold, transports on March 12, 2009 at 1:39 am

March 11, 2009… Yesterday’s massive 7% rally on the Dow where 96% of the volume was on rising stocks, lacked enough punch to produce a follow-through of more than 5 Dow points today.  The Bear is still in the marquee position on this site as it has been since November of 2007.  Chart 1 shows the Point and Figure target of the recent breakdown is $47 on the Diamonds (DIA) Dow proxy:

dia-11mar091

GOLD STALLS… The downside target for Gold remains around $830 based on the sell signal shown in Chart 2.  Declining jewerly demand and lack of catastrophe buying has halted the demand for Gold below it’s all-time high of $1030.

gld-11mar09

OIL FALLS… On news that the OPEC production cut that was expected March 15th may not materialize.  Is this a new down leg or just a pause after the recent breakout to the upside?  Chart 3 shows the bullish target at $60.  A decline in the US dollar may help oil reach that target.

wtic-11mar09

NDT Conclusion: Continue to focus on capital preservation.   This is still a BEAR market until proven otherwise.  Bear market rallies can be tantalizing opportunities, however, only the most nimble of traders can make money on the long side when the primary trend is down.

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NEW DOW THEORY BUY AND SELL HISTORY

In Uncategorized on March 10, 2009 at 2:24 am
Buy and Sell Signals with Equity curve since 1990

Buy and Sell Signals with Equity curve since 1990